Probabilistic analysis of the evolution of degradation of natural stone claddings applying Markov chains

  • A. Silva Departamento de Engenharia Civil, Arquitectura e Georrecursos, IST, Universidade de Lisboa
  • J. De Brito Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade Técnica de Lisboa – Portugal.
  • P. L. Gaspar Faculdade de Arquitectura, Universidade de Lisboa
  • L. C. Neves NTEC, University of Nottingham
Keywords: Markov chains, Service life prediction, Stone claddings


The service life prediction models intend to extrapolate the future behaviour of building elements, anticipating the instant at which an intervention is required. Markov chains can be used to assess the future condition of the construction components and are applied in this study to model the service life of stone claddings (directly adhered to the substrate), based on visual inspections of buildings in service conditions. The degradation of stone claddings is evaluated using a discrete scale with five condition levels. In this study the probability of transition from degradation conditions and the time spent in each of these conditions are evaluated. This study also allows a better understanding of the influence of the exposure conditions on the evolution of degradation of the claddings under analysis.


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How to Cite
Silva, A., De Brito, J., Gaspar, P. L., & Neves, L. C. (2015). Probabilistic analysis of the evolution of degradation of natural stone claddings applying Markov chains. Revista ALCONPAT, 5(3), 153 - 164.
Basic Research